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Estimation of the 10-year Probability of Osteoporotic Fracture in Postmenopausal Taiwanese Women With FRAX

Yin-Ming Li a, b, Shu-Hsin Liu c

aDepartment of Family Medicine, Buddhist Tzu Chi General Hospital, Hualien, Taiwan
bDepartment of Public Health, Tzu Chi University, Hualien, Taiwan
cDepartment of Nuclear Medicine, Buddhist Tzu Chi General Hospital, Hualien, Taiwan

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As the proportion of the aging population rises dramatically, osteoporotic fractures among the elderly have become a global health concern. We assessed the prevalence of osteoporosis and estimated the 10-year probability of osteoporotic fractures among postmenopausal women.
Materials and Methods
Patients who were undergoing a checkup at a teaching hospital in eastern Taiwan were invited to participate in this study. A self-administered questionnaire was used to ascertain their demographics, diet, lifestyle, and reproductive and medical histories. The bone mineral density (BMD) of the posterior-anterior lumbar spine (L1–L4) was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. A diagnosis of osteoporosis was made according to World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. The 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture was computed online without BMD data with the WHO Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX). Results: In total, 475 postmenopausal women were involved in this study. The prevalence of osteoporosis was 37.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 33.2%, 41.5%]. The mean 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic or hip fracture were 13.8% (95% CI = 10.7%, 16.9%) and 2.2% (95% CI = 0.8%, 3.5%), respectively. For women aged ≥ 70 years, the mean 10-year probability of an osteoporotic fracture was 24.3% (95% CI = 13.6%, 35.0%). In total, approximately 17.1% (95% CI = 14.0%, 20.5%) of women were at high risk of a major osteoporotic fracture (risk > 20%) and 20.3% (95% CI = 16.1%, 23.9%) were at high risk of a hip fracture (> 3%). Furthermore, one in four osteoporotic women was at high risk of a major osteoporotic fracture.
Osteoporosis is common among postmenopausal women, and the risk of osteoporotic fracture is of great concern particularly among older women and vegetarians. Ongoing studies of fracture rates should be followed up, and strategies and research directed at fracture prevention should be prioritized as the proportion of the aged population increases.


Check-up; Elderly; Postmenopausal; Probability of osteoporotic fracture


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